Company Overview - Ceyloncoldstores

FY24E and FY25E
Revenue	12000	13000	25000

	Period		FY21	FY22	FY23	4Q23	1Q24	2Q24	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
1	Manufacturing		13,971.3	17,534.4	26,376.3	7,262.5	7,350.4	7,439.0			30,121.3
	- YoY%		0	25.5	50.4						14.2

2	Supermarkets/ Retail		54,795.1	67,008.8	99,772.8	25,201.5	28,155.1	27,265.9			113,063.8
	- YoY%		0	22.3	48.9						13.3

3	Intra-Segment Eliminations		0.0	0.0	0.0	-282.2	-911.2	-422.5			-3,560.2
	- YoY%		0	0	0						0

4	nan		nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan			nan
	nan		nan	nan	nan						nan

5	nan		nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan			nan
	nan		nan	nan	nan						nan

	Period		FY21	FY22	FY23	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
1	COGS		61,115.4	75,407.4	113,400.2	29,035.5	30,714.3	29,880.4			122,127.5
	- As a % of sales		86.3%	86.8%	88.0%	88.3%	87.0%	85.3%			85.6%

2	Administration		3,978.1	4,821.8	6,207.0	1,497.2	1,766.0	1,833.7			7,431.4	0
	- As a % of sales		3.0%	3.0%	2.7%	2.3%	2.9%	3.1%			3.1%

3	Selling & Distribution		2,694.8	3,148.7	3,992.8	1,023.5	1,228.4	1,326.8			4,965.3
	- As a % of sales		2.6%	2.5%	2.3%	2.3%	2.7%	3.0%			2.7%

4	Capital Expenditure		114.6	3,305.0	2,878.5	1,257.6	445.7	497.7		0	615.3	00	0	00	0
	- As a % of sales		0.2%	3.9%	2.3%	3.9%	1.3%	1.5%			0.4%

	Fixed Assets - Cost	FY21	FY22	FY23	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24E	1Q25E	3Q25E	FY28E
1	Balance B/F	0.0	0.0	35,674.0	0.0	39,017.7	39,463.4	39,961.1	39,017.7	41,441.2
	Capital Expenditure	114.6	3,305.0	2,878.5	1,257.6	445.7	497.7	222
	Balance C/F	0.0	35,674.0	39,017.7	0.0	39,463.4	39,961.1		41,441.2

Depreciation	FY21	FY22	FY23	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
Balance B/F	0.0	0.0	10,094.4	0.0	11,768.5	12,400.9	13,032.4		11,767.6					13,695.4
Depreciation charge	1,762.8	1,984.8	2,376.7	631.0	630.5	631.5			2,551.5
- As a % of sales	2.6%	2.3%	1.9%	2.0%	1.8%	1.8%			1.8%
Balance C/F	0.0	10,094.4	11,767.6	0.0	12,399.0	13,032.4	111	111	13,695.4	111	111	111	111	111	111	111	111	111
Net Book Value at end	22,289.2	25,579.6	27,250.2	27,250.2	27,064.4	26,928.7			27,745.7

2	Working Capital

Period	FY21	FY22	FY23	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24	3Q25E
2.1 Accounts and notes receivables	3,357.7	4,269.6	5,089.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7,224.4
- As a % of sales	4.9	5.1	4.0	0	0	0	5.2
Four Qtr Cum. Revenue				34,282.4	68,876.7	101,058.5
Four Qtr Cum. COGS				-29,880.4	-60,594.6	-89,630.1

	2.2 Inventories		7,108.7	9,074.9	14,490.4	14,490.4	12,311.3	11,003.9			12,559.3
	- As a % of COGS		11.6	12.0	12.8	49.9	40.1	36.8			10.3

	2.3 Prepayments		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
	- As a % of sales		0	0	0	0	0	0			0

	2.4 Accounts payable		9,823.8	12,353.2	14,326.3	14,326.3	15,341.4	14,308.4			17,451.3
	- As a % of COGS		16.1	16.4	12.6	49.3	49.9	47.9			14.3

2.5 Other	3,071.1	2,000.0	1,185.3	1,185.3	1,033.3	415.0	900.0
- As a % of COGS	0.0	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan
Working Capital				42673.1
Change in Working Capital						2,634.2

Interest Bearing Debt	FY21	FY22	FY23	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
i. Balance B/F	1,458.3	6,841.7	10,487.0	10,487.0	9,020.5	9,020.5	9,020.5		10,487.0
ii. Borrowings	6,000.0	5,352.3	708.8	-0.0	0.0	0.0			758.2
iii. Repayments	616.7	1,706.9	2,175.3	665.5	416.0	614.2			2,112.1
iv. Balance C/F	6,841.7	10,487.0	9,020.5	10,487.0	9,020.5	9,020.5			7,666.6
v. Average Debt balance	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
vi. Interest expenses	152.4	454.6	1,234.3	0.0	0.0	0.0			960.3
vii. Blended Interest expenses rate	3.7	5.2	12.7	0	0	0	%	%	11.5	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%

Leases	FY21	FY22	FY23	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
Lease - Opening balance	7,599.0	9,165.6	10,404.7	10,823.8	10,615.9	10,474.0	10,343.7		10,615.9					11,380.7
Additions	1,909.4	1,713.6	821.7	0.0	0.0	0.0
Payments	1,276.3	1,376.0	1,649.3	461.0	425.0	458.9			1,781.8
Closing balance	9,165.6	10,404.7	10,615.9	10,615.9	10,474.0	10,343.7			11,380.7
Adjustments	-117.5	-185.4	-107.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			-185.3
Lease Interest expenses	1,051.0	1,087.1	1,145.8	0.0	0.0	0.0			1,196.2
Blended Interest rate (%)	1253.8	1110.9	1090.1	0	0	0	%	%	1087.6	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%

Interest Income	FY21	FY22	FY23	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
i. Cash & CE Balance C/F			1,345.4	1,253.1	1,544.2	1,680.4		1,253.1	2,161.2
ii. Interest Income	54.6	61.9	134.3	35.0	28.1	33.1			108.0
iii. Blended Interest income rate	972.1	460.2	1071.7	279.6	182.3	197.1	%	%	499.8	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%

Tax	FY21	FY22	FY23	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
i. Profit before tax	2,374.5	2,781.8	2,239.4	418.4	415.3	1,135.4			4,930.9
Open balance	274.6	222.9	266.0	90.7	105.6	105.6	105.3
Charge for the year	305.4	273.6	-51.8	0.0	0.0	0.0			422.5
Tax paid	357.1	230.5	296.8	121.6	0.0	0.3	0.0		262.5					422.5
Closing balance - Calculated	222.9	266.0	105.6	-30.9	105.6	105.3			256.3
vi. Tax Rate	nan	nan	nan	nan	0	0	%	%		%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%

Income Statement	FY21	FY22	FY23	1Q24	2Q24	FY24
Combined Revenue	68,766.3	84,543.2	126,149.1	34,594.3	34,282.4	139,624.9
COGS	61,115.4	75,407.4	113,400.2	30,714.3	29,880.4
Gross Profit	7,651.0	9,135.9	12,748.9	3,880.0	4,402.0	17,497.5
Administration Exp.	3,978.1	4,821.8	6,207.0	1,766.0	1,833.7
Selling & Distribution Exp.	2,694.8	3,148.7	3,992.8	1,228.4	1,326.8
Depreciation	1,762.8	1,984.8	2,376.7	630.5	631.5	2,551.5
7. Amortisation
Other Operating Expenses	-204.7	-236.8	-1,339.8	-627.2	53.5	nan
Operating Income	4,112.5	4,744.3	6,185.0	1,377.5	1,926.6	8,155.4
Interest Expenses	1,796.5	2,041.4	4,101.0			3,354.4
Interest Income	54.6	61.9	134.3	28.1	33.1
Other (Expenses)/Income	3.9	17.0	21.1	0.0	0.0	nan
Profit Before Tax	2,374.5	2,781.8	2,239.4	415.3	1,135.4	4,930.9
Tax Expenses	305.4	273.6	-51.8	0.0	0.0
Profit After Tax	2,338.3	2,068.0	2,512.7	322.2	786.7
Other	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	nan
Net Income	2,338.3	2,068.0	2,512.7	322.2	786.7

Cash Flow Statement	Forecast Ref.	FY21	FY22	FY23	1Q24	2Q24	4Q24E	FY24	FY25E
Profit Before Tax	From IS	2,374.5	2,781.8	2,239.4	415.3	1,135.4		4,930.9
Depreciation	From OA 1.1	1,762.8	1,984.8	2,376.7	630.5	631.5		2,551.5
Change in Working Capital	From OA 2	94.4	-583.3	-4,535.9	3,682.4	-790.6		2,634.2
Income Tax Paid	From OA 5	357.1	230.5	296.8	0.0	0.3		262.5
Other		1,558.7	1,083.4	1,775.0	-305.1	1,327.8		2,366.8
Net Cash Flow from / (used in) Operating Activities		6,495.0	6,377.3	3,125.0	4,172.4	3,601.2		13,963.7
Capital Expenditure	From CA 4	114.6	3,305.0	2,878.5	445.7	497.7		615.3
Other		-1,697.3	-146.0	133.1	2.3	0.1		-711.0
Cash Flows from Investing Activities		-5,711.7	-6,196.3	-4,799.5	-443.4	-497.6		-4,060.4
Borrowings		6,000.0	5,352.3	708.8	0.0	0.0		758.2
Debt Repayments		616.7	2,175.3	2,175.3	416.0	614.2		2,112.1
10. Lease Additions
Lease Repayments		1,276.3	1,649.3	1,649.3	425.0	458.9		1,781.8
Other		-1,615.7	-1,140.5	-1,128.3	-421.2	0.0		-1,776.5
Net Cash flows from / (used in) Financing Activities		4,021.3	57.7	-5,058.8	-1,414.3<	-1,596.9		-5,197.5
Other		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
Net Increase/(Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents		4,804.7	238.8	-6,733.4	2,314.7	1,506.7		4,705.7
Balance adjustments as per company		4,880.9	5,425.5	12,066.5	9,445.2	9,493.4		8,268.9
Cash and CE at Start		-9,123.5	-4,318.8	-4,080.1	-10,813.5	-7,901.1	4Q	-10,813.5	-6,107.7
Cash and CE at End		-4,318.8	-4,080.1	-10,813.5	-7,901.1			-6,107.7

Balance Sheet	Notes	FY21	FY22	FY23	1Q24	2Q24	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
Assets
Property Plant and Equipment - Net Book value	From OA 1	22,289.2	25,579.6	27,250.2	27,064.4	26,928.7			27,745.7
Right-of-use assets		300.3	317.2	645.9	645.9	645.9	667.7	667.7	667.7	667.7	667.7	667.7	667.7	667.7	667.7	667.7	667.7	667.7
Intangible assets		0.0	0.0	272.5	242.9	139.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Investment in an associate		1,941.1	2,822.2	3,601.0	3,553.1	3,973.3	4,443.0	4,443.0	4,484.7	4,443.0	4,443.0	4,443.0	4,443.0	4,443.0	4,443.0	4,443.0	4,443.0	4,443.0
Other financial assets		9,567.3	10,103.0	9,771.9	9,493.9	9,247.1	nan	nan	10,016.4	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan
Deferred income tax assets		7,296.0	7,503.0	6,672.8	5,971.0	6,450.9	6,372.2	6,372.2	6,270.9	6,372.2	6,372.2	6,372.2	6,372.2	6,372.2	6,372.2	6,372.2	6,372.2	6,372.2
Other Assets		1,054.9	1,006.7	1,086.0	1,106.7	1,141.8	1,146.6	1,146.6	1,129.6	1,146.6	1,146.6	1,146.6	1,146.6	1,146.6	1,146.6	1,146.6	1,146.6	1,146.6
Non Current Assets		42,448.9	47,331.8	49,300.3	48,077.8	48,527.2			50,315.0
Inventories	From OA 2.2	7,108.7	9,074.9	14,490.4	12,311.3	11,003.9			12,559.3
Trade and Other Receivables	From OA 2.1	3,357.7	4,269.6	5,089.0	0.0	0.0			7,224.4
Prepayments	From OA 2.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
Amounts due from related parties		3.4	3.0	28.0	35.6	51.1	22.3	22.3	160.2	22.3	22.3	22.3	22.3	22.3	22.3	22.3	22.3	22.3
Other financial assets		1,494.1	1,507.9	1,451.3	5,988.8	6,437.5	1,393.3	1,393.3	1,200.3	1,393.3	1,393.3	1,393.3	1,393.3	1,393.3	1,393.3	1,393.3	1,393.3	1,393.3
Income tax recoverable		0.0	2.8	117.9	123.5	123.5	123.3	123.3	123.3	123.3	123.3	123.3	123.3	123.3	123.3	123.3	123.3	123.3
Cash and Cash Equivalents	From CFS	562.1	1,345.4	1,253.1	1,544.2	1,680.4			2,161.2
Current Assets		12,526.0	16,203.6	22,429.8	20,003.4	19,296.4			23,428.7
Total Assets		54,974.9	63,535.4	71,730.0	68,081.2	67,823.6
Equities and Liabilities
Stated capital		918.2	918.2	918.2	918.2	918.2	918.2	918.2	918.2	918.2	918.2	918.2	918.2	918.2	918.2	918.2	918.2	918.2
Reserves	14,531.9	3,501.7	3,501.7	3,627.3	2,911.9	3,294.7	3,618.6	3,618.6	3,466.0	3,618.6	3,618.6	3,618.6	3,618.6	3,618.6	3,618.6	3,618.6	3,618.6	3,618.6
Retained Earnings		12,362.8	13,312.3	14,531.9	14,432.9	15,219.5			16,066.5
Other components of equity		0.0	0.0	0.0	2911.9	3,294.7	nan	nan	0.0	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan
Equity attributable to equity holders of parent
Non-controlling interest		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	nan	nan	0.0	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan
Total Equity		16,782.7	18,107.2	19,077.5	21,174.8	22,727.1			20,450.7
Long Term Debt	From OA 3	5,141.7	8,307.7	6,850.4	6,285.1	5,719.7			3,163.6
Financing and Lease Payables	From OA 4	9,165.6	10,404.7	10,615.9	10,474.0	10,343.7			11,380.7
Deferred income tax liabilities		1,457.9	1,756.8	1,929.2	1,972.8	2,218.0	2,954.2	2,954.2	2,826.6	2,954.2	2,954.2	2,954.2	2,954.2	2,954.2	2,954.2	2,954.2	2,954.2	2,954.2
Retirement benefit obligation		807.8	902.9	754.1	782.6	802.4	1,121.2	1,121.2	1,087.9	1,121.2	1,121.2	1,121.2	1,121.2	1,121.2	1,121.2	1,121.2	1,121.2	1,121.2
Other Non-Current Liabilities		101.1	96.2	104.0	105.6	106.3	110.1	110.1	111.3	110.1	110.1	110.1	110.1	110.1	110.1	110.1	110.1	110.1
Non Current Liabilities		16,335.9	20,991.2	19,600.9	18,979.1	18,489.6			17,879.3
Current Maturities of Long Term Debt	Added to LT debt in the forecast	1,700.0	1,700.0	2,170.1	2,319.4	2,365.1			4,503.1
Trade Payables	From OA 2.4	9,823.8	12,353.2	14,326.3	15,341.4	14,308.4			17,451.3
Amounts due to related parties		619.3	704.1	1,010.3	357.5	890.6	485.6	485.6	1,323.6	485.6	485.6	485.6	485.6	485.6	485.6	485.6	485.6	485.6
Income Tax Liabilities	From OA 6	222.9	266.0	105.6	105.6	105.3			256.3
Other Accruals	From OA 2.5	0	0	0	0	0
Other		676.6	1,031.9	1,291.1	1,472.6	1,623.1	1,599.0	1,599.0	2,019.8	1,599.0	1,599.0	1,599.0	1,599.0	1,599.0	1,599.0	1,599.0	1,599.0	1,599.0
Bank overdrafts		5,404.5	5,425.5	12,310.3	9,568.5	9,493.4	nan	nan	8,268.9	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan
Current Liabilities		21,856.3	24,437.0	33,051.7	30,839.1	29,901.6			35,413.8
Total Equity and Liabilities		54,974.9	63,535.4	71,730.0	70,993.1	71,118.2			73,743.7

DCF Valuation
Relative Valuation

DCF Enterprise Value

Period	Notes	FY25E
1. EBIT	From FF 6
2. Tax	From OA 4
3. Depreciation	From OA 1
4. Adjustments	User Input
5. Capital Expenditure	From CA 4
6. Changes in Working Capital	From OA 2
7. Free Cash Flow
8. Terminal Value
9. Total Free Cash Flow
10. Discount factor	Calculation
11. Present Value of Free Cash Flows	7*10=11

12. DCF Enterprise Value
13. Net (Debt)/Cash		-26,055.0
14. Pension Underfunding	From BS
15. Other	User input cell
14. Adjustment	User Input
15. DCF Valuation - Equity Value
16. Number of Shares		950.4
17. Price per Share (Rs.)

Weighted Average Costs of Capital (WACC)

	Symbol		User Input	Reference	Source for Reference
1. Risk Free Rate	Rf		%	18.8%	SL 10yr bond yield
2. Long term cost of debt	Kd		%	25.0%	Weighted avg. int. rate
3. Equity risk premium	Rp		%	10.0%	External Source
4. Beta	B		%	125.0%	CSE
5.Tax Rate	t		%	30.0%	SL tax rate
6. Debt Weighting	Wd		%	50.0%
7. Equity Weighting	We		%	50.0%
8. Cost of Equity	Ke	1+(3*4)=8		25.0%
9. WACC	Dr	(6(2(1-5)))+(7*8)=9		21.0%
10. Terminal Growth Rate			%	5.0%

	Notes	Price to Earnings	Price to Book Value	Price to Sales
1. Earnings/Book Value/Sales			20,450.7
2. Adjusted Multiple
3. Valuation (Rs. Millions)	1*2=3
4. Number of Shares (Millions)		950.4	950.4	950.4
5. Price per Share(Rs.)

Peer Multiples	Notes		Price to Earnings		Price to Book Value		Price to Sales





Average
Adjustment
Adjusted Multiple

Date	Research Organisation	Recommendation	Target Price (Rs.)
0	10103.03	0	0

Valuation

DCF Enterprise Value

Weighted Average Costs of Capital (WACC)

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Period		3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24E	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
Revenue
YoY %
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin %
Net Profit
Net Profit Margin %
Free Cash Flow

Valuation		Rs.Million	Price per Share (Rs.)	Share	Adjusted Valuation
DCF Valuation				%
Price to Earnings				%
Price to Book Value				%
Price to Sales				%
EV to EBITDA				%
Blended Valuation (Rs.)