Company Overview - Keellsfoodproducts

FY24E and FY25E
Revenue	12000	13000	25000

	Period		FY21	FY22	FY23	4Q23	1Q24	2Q24	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
1	Manufacturing		3,393.2	4,255.1	6,199.1	0.0	1,327.2	0.0			5,537.8
	YoY%		nan	25.4	45.7						-10.7

2	Trading		258.1	346.1	245.2	0.0	40.8	0.0			261.0
	YoY%		nan	34.1	-29.2						6.5

3	Others		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
	YoY%		nan	nan	nan						nan

4	Segment		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
	YoY%		nan	nan	nan						nan

5	Segment		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
	YoY%		nan	nan	nan						nan

	Period		FY21	FY22	FY23	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
1	COGS		2,646.1	3,459.9	5,057.9	1,056.5	1,108.2	1,128.9			4,521.9
	- As a % of sales		68.2%	71.4%	75.5%	82.0%	77.1%	79.2%			74.1%

2	Administration		33.1	47.3	95.4	65.3	30.8	89.3			128.3	0
	- As a % of sales		5.2%	4.8%	4.5%	5.1%	6.1%	6.3%			6.0%

3	Selling & Distribution		441.2	447.0	742.8	187.7	183.9	193.3			802.8
	- As a % of sales		12.0%	9.7%	11.5%	14.6%	13.4%	13.6%			13.8%

4	Capital Expenditure		87.7	123.5	289.8	0.0	62.8	0.0		0	188.9	00	0	00	0
	- As a % of sales		2.4%	2.7%	4.5%	0%	4.6%	0%			3.3%

	Fixed Assets - Cost	FY21	FY22	FY23	4Q24E	1Q25E	3Q25E	FY28E
1	Balance B/F	2,322.9	2,419.9	2,519.0	2,829.4	0.0	2,829.4	2,998.5
	Capital Expenditure	87.7	123.5	289.8	62.8	222
	Balance C/F	2,419.9	2,519.0	2,829.4	2,892.2		2,998.5

Depreciation	FY21	FY22	FY23	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
Balance B/F	739.4	873.9	1,016.2	1,546.0	1,127.3	-1,546.0	1,711.4		1,127.3					1,322.6
Depreciation charge	156.8	174.7	194.3	0.0	53.5	0.0			222.6
- As a % of sales	4.3%	3.8%	3.0%	0%	3.9%	0%			3.8%
Balance C/F	873.9	1,016.2	1,127.3	1,546.0	1,180.8	1,711.4	111	111	1,322.6	111	111	111	111	111	111	111	111	111
Net Book Value at end	1,546.0	1,502.9	1,702.0	-1,546.0	1,711.4	-1,711.4			1,675.9

2	Working Capital

Period	FY21	FY22	FY23	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24	3Q25E
2.1 Accounts and notes receivables	463.5	621.5	685.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	731.3
- As a % of sales	12.7	13.5	10.6	0	0	0	12.6
Four Qtr Cum. Revenue				1,424.7	2,792.7	4,081.8
Four Qtr Cum. COGS				-1,128.9	-2,237.0	-3,293.6

	2.2 Inventories		543.1	585.7	1,194.4	0.0	990.7	0.0			889.5
	- As a % of COGS		20.5	16.9	23.6	0	89.4	0			19.7

	2.3 Prepayments		0.0	0.0	0.0	nan	nan	nan			0.0
	- As a % of sales		0	0	0	0	0	0			0

	2.4 Accounts payable		366.8	527.2	506.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			564.5
	- As a % of COGS		13.9	15.2	10.0	0	0	0			12.5

2.5 Other	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan
- As a % of COGS	0.0	0.0	0.0	nan	nan	nan
Working Capital				42673.1
Change in Working Capital						363.3

Interest Bearing Debt	FY21	FY22	FY23	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
i. Balance B/F	165.3	129.1	85.7	0.0	67.2	31.4	0.0		0.0
ii. Borrowings	0.0	0.0	25.0	0.0	-35.9	0.0			224.9
iii. Repayments	-36.2	-43.5	-43.5	0.0	0.0	-31.4			-67.2
iv. Balance C/F	129.1	85.7	67.2	0.0	31.4	0.0			224.9
v. Average Debt balance	0.0	0.0	0.0	nan	49.3	33.6
vi. Interest expenses	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan			nan
vii. Blended Interest expenses rate	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	%	%	nan	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%

Leases	FY21	FY22	FY23	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
Lease - Opening balance	9.8	9.8	8.7	0.0	6.4	6.2	0.0		6.4					5.0
Additions	0.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.2	0.0
Repayments	2.1	2.1	2.3	0.0	0.0	6.2			2.4
Closing balance	9.8	8.7	6.4	0.0	6.2	0.0			5.0
Adjustments	0.0	0.0	-0.9	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
Lease interest expenses	1.1	1.1	0.9	0.0	0.0	0.0			1.0
Blended lease interest rate	1165.2	1142.4	1243.6	nan	nan	nan	%	%	1784.8	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%

Interest Income	FY21	FY22	FY23	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
i. Cash & CE Balance C/F			109.9	0.0	66.7	0.0		50.3	68.7
ii. Interest Income	9.5	7.2	11.0	2.9	3.1	3.7			14.1
iii. Blended Interest income rate	31.2	6.6	21.8	0	4.6	0	%	%	20.5	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%

Tax	FY21	FY22	FY23	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
i. Profit before tax	326.2	389.8	69.1	-124.0	-125.1	-93.3			-289.9
ii. Balance B/F	-7.8	19.3	40.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
iii. Tax provision for the year	69.1	73.4	10.3	-37.8	-34.6	-26.1			0.0
iv. Taxes paid (provision for the previous year)	42.1	52.5	82.3	0.0	-34.6	-26.1	-26.1		0.0					0.0
v. Balance C/F	19.3	40.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
vi. Tax Rate	0	0	0	0	0	0	%	%		%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%

Income Statement	FY21	FY22	FY23	1Q24	2Q24	FY24
Combined Revenue	3,651.2	4,601.2	6,444.3	1,368.0	1,424.7	5,798.8
COGS	2,646.1	3,459.9	5,057.9	1,108.2	1,128.9
Gross Profit	1,005.2	1,141.3	1,386.3	259.9	295.8	1,276.9
Administration Exp.	33.1	47.3	95.4	30.8	89.3
Selling & Distribution Exp.	441.2	447.0	742.8	183.9	193.3
Depreciation	156.8	174.7	194.3	53.5	0.0	222.6
7. Amortisation
Other Operating Expenses	47.1	105.7	147.2	62.3	63.7	nan
Operating Income	329.3	394.9	230.5	-70.7	-50.4	-137.2
Interest Expenses	12.6	12.4	172.3			166.8
Interest Income	9.5	7.2	11.0	3.1	3.7
Other (Expenses)/Income	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	nan
Profit Before Tax	326.2	389.8	69.1	-125.1	-93.3	-289.9
Tax Expenses	69.1	73.4	10.3	-34.6	-26.1
Profit After Tax	321.0	329.6	13.9	-90.4	-67.2
Other	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	nan
Net Income	321.0	329.6	13.9	-90.4	-67.2

Cash Flow Statement	Forecast Ref.	FY21	FY22	FY23	1Q24	2Q24	4Q24E	FY24	FY25E
Profit Before Tax	From IS	326.2	389.8	69.1	-125.1	-93.3		-289.9
Depreciation	From OA 1.1	156.8	174.7	194.3	53.5	0.0		222.6
Change in Working Capital	From OA 2	-169.4	-66.7	-745.6	141.2	0.0		363.3
Income Tax Paid	From OA 5	42.1	52.5	82.3	0.0	0.0		0.0
Other		38.5	-38.5	-61.1	36.6	0.0		75.4
Net Cash Flow from / (used in) Operating Activities		311.4	408.7	-623.0	106.9	-93.3		374.3
Capital Expenditure	From CA 4	87.7	123.5	289.8	62.8	0.0		188.9
Other		0.2	0.2	13.9	0.0	0.0		0.2
Cash Flows from Investing Activities		-90.0	-126.7	-278.2	-62.8	0.0		-189.2
Borrowings		0.0	0.0	25.0	0.0	0.0		224.9
Debt Repayments		36.2	43.5	43.5	35.9	0.0		67.2
10. Lease Additions
Lease Repayments		2.1	2.3	2.3	0.5	0.0		2.4
Other		-178.5	-242.2	-51.0	-12.8	0.0		-12.8
Net Cash flows from / (used in) Financing Activities		-216.8	-287.8	-71.7	-49.1<	0.0		142.5
Other		-0.1	0.7	-4.2	nan	nan		4.1
Net Increase/(Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents		4.7	-5.8	-973.0	-5.0	-93.3		327.6
Balance adjustments as per company		160.3	245.3	1,162.8	1,184.3	1,208.8		849.5
Cash and CE at Start		-134.9	-130.3	-135.4	-1,112.6	-1,115.5	4Q	-1,112.6	-780.9
Cash and CE at End		-130.3	-135.4	-1,112.6	-1,117.6			-780.9

Balance Sheet	Notes	FY21	FY22	FY23	1Q24	2Q24	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
Assets
Property Plant and Equipment - Net Book value	From OA 1	1,546.0	1,502.9	1,702.0	1,711.4	-1,711.4			1,675.9
2. Right-of-use assets		nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	0.0	0.0	nan	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
3. Intangible assets		nan	nan	nan	53.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	nan	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
4. Investment in an associate		244.7	247.6	248.8	249.0	0.0	247.4	247.4	247.8	247.4	247.4	247.4	247.4	247.4	247.4	247.4	247.4	247.4
5. Other financial assets		8.9	7.4	5.0	4.7	0.0	3.3	3.3	3.6	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3
6. Deferred income tax assets		45.1	51.3	48.5	53.6	0.0	60.1	60.1	58.8	60.1	60.1	60.1	60.1	60.1	60.1	60.1	60.1	60.1
Other		9.1	8.4	22.9	25.0	0.0	28.3	28.3	28.7	28.3	28.3	28.3	28.3	28.3	28.3	28.3	28.3	28.3
Non Current Assets		1,853.8	1,817.6	2,027.3	2,097.3	0.0			2,014.8
Inventories	From OA 2.2	543.1	585.7	1,194.4	990.7	0.0			889.5
Trade and Other Receivables	From OA 2.1	463.5	621.5	685.4	0.0	0.0			731.3
Prepayments	From OA 2.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	nan	nan			0.0
Amounts Due From Related Parties		162.8	196.2	235.7	254.0	0.0	237.5	237.5	205.6	237.5	237.5	237.5	237.5	237.5	237.5	237.5	237.5	237.5
12. Other financial assets		15.4	108.6	77.8	47.7	0.0	30.2	30.2	20.2	30.2	30.2	30.2	30.2	30.2	30.2	30.2	30.2	30.2
13. Income tax recoverable		0.0	0.0	31.9	31.9	0.0	31.9	31.9	31.9	31.9	31.9	31.9	31.9	31.9	31.9	31.9	31.9	31.9
Cash and Cash Equivalents	From CFS	30.0	109.9	50.3	66.7	0.0			68.7
Current Assets		1,214.8	1,621.9	2,275.4	1,390.9	0.0			1,947.1
Total Assets		3,068.6	3,439.5	4,302.7	3,488.2	0.0
Equities and Liabilities
1. Stated capital		1,294.8	1,294.8	1,294.8	1,294.8	1,294.8	1,294.8	1,294.8	1,294.8	1,294.8	1,294.8	1,294.8	1,294.8	1,294.8	1,294.8	1,294.8	1,294.8	1,294.8
2. Reserves	399.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Retained Earnings		422.7	503.3	399.7	296.5	296.5			143.0
Other		358.8	394.5	413.8	nan	nan	424.2	424.2	425.4	424.2	424.2	424.2	424.2	424.2	424.2	424.2	424.2	424.2
Equity attributable to equity holders of parent
5. Non-controlling interest		nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	0.0	0.0	nan	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total Equity		2,076.4	2,192.6	2,108.3	1,591.3	1,591.3			1,863.3
Long Term Debt	From OA 3	85.7	42.2	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
Financing and Lease Payables	From OA 4	9.8	8.7	6.4	6.2	0.0			5.0
Employee benefit liabilities		121.4	144.1	114.1	116.7	0.0	166.3	166.3	160.4	166.3	166.3	166.3	166.3	166.3	166.3	166.3	166.3	166.3
Deferred tax liabilities		158.0	150.6	286.5	251.9	0.0	206.9	206.9	206.2	206.9	206.9	206.9	206.9	206.9	206.9	206.9	206.9	206.9
0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Non Current Liabilities		373.8	344.3	405.6	373.3	0.0			370.0
Current Maturities of Long Term Debt	Added to LT debt in the forecast	43.5	43.5	67.2	31.4	0.0			224.9
Trade Payables	From OA 2.4	366.8	527.2	506.0	0.0	0.0			564.5
13. Amounts due to related parties		9.3	21.9	15.0	21.6	0.0	39.1	39.1	45.2	39.1	39.1	39.1	39.1	39.1	39.1	39.1	39.1	39.1
Income Tax Liabilities	From OA 6	19.3	40.2	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
Other Accruals	From OA 2.5	0	0	0	0	0
Other		17.9	23.4	36.3	47.1	0.0	49.4	49.4	42.9	49.4	49.4	49.4	49.4	49.4	49.4	49.4	49.4	49.4
Bank overdraft		160.8	245.3	1,162.8	nan	nan	881.9	881.9	849.5	881.9	881.9	881.9	881.9	881.9	881.9	881.9	881.9	881.9
Current Liabilities		618.5	902.6	1,788.8	101.5	0.0			1,728.6
Total Equity and Liabilities		3,068.6	3,439.5	4,302.7	2,066.1	1,591.3			3,961.9

DCF Valuation
Relative Valuation

DCF Enterprise Value

Period	Notes	FY25E
1. EBIT	From FF 6
2. Tax	From OA 4
3. Depreciation	From OA 1
4. Adjustments	User Input
5. Capital Expenditure	From CA 4
6. Changes in Working Capital	From OA 2
7. Free Cash Flow
8. Terminal Value
9. Total Free Cash Flow
10. Discount factor	Calculation
11. Present Value of Free Cash Flows	7*10=11

12. DCF Enterprise Value
13. Net (Debt)/Cash		-1,010.8
14. Pension Underfunding	From BS
15. Other	User input cell
14. Adjustment	User Input
15. DCF Valuation - Equity Value
16. Number of Shares		25.5
17. Price per Share (Rs.)

Weighted Average Costs of Capital (WACC)

	Symbol		User Input	Reference	Source for Reference
1. Risk Free Rate	Rf		%	18.8%	SL 10yr bond yield
2. Long term cost of debt	Kd		%	25.0%	Weighted avg. int. rate
3. Equity risk premium	Rp		%	10.0%	External Source
4. Beta	B		%	125.0%	CSE
5.Tax Rate	t		%	30.0%	SL tax rate
6. Debt Weighting	Wd		%	50.0%
7. Equity Weighting	We		%	50.0%
8. Cost of Equity	Ke	1+(3*4)=8		25.0%
9. WACC	Dr	(6(2(1-5)))+(7*8)=9		21.0%
10. Terminal Growth Rate			%	5.0%

	Notes	Price to Earnings	Price to Book Value	Price to Sales
1. Earnings/Book Value/Sales			1,863.3
2. Adjusted Multiple
3. Valuation (Rs. Millions)	1*2=3
4. Number of Shares (Millions)		25.5	25.5	25.5
5. Price per Share(Rs.)

Peer Multiples	Notes		Price to Earnings		Price to Book Value		Price to Sales





Average
Adjustment
Adjusted Multiple

Date	Research Organisation	Recommendation	Target Price (Rs.)
0	7.437	0	0

Valuation

DCF Enterprise Value

Weighted Average Costs of Capital (WACC)

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Period		3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24E	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
Revenue
YoY %
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin %
Net Profit
Net Profit Margin %
Free Cash Flow

Valuation		Rs.Million	Price per Share (Rs.)	Share	Adjusted Valuation
DCF Valuation				%
Price to Earnings				%
Price to Book Value				%
Price to Sales				%
EV to EBITDA				%
Blended Valuation (Rs.)