Company Overview - NawalokaHospitals

FY24E and FY25E
Revenue	12000	13000	25000

	Period		FY21	FY22	FY23	4Q23	1Q24	2Q24	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
1	Hospital revenue		2,892.3	5,197.3	3,738.9	0.0	0.0	0.0			4,655.5
	YoY		-22.1	79.7	-28.1						24.5

2	Pharmacy revenue		2,010.0	2,491.3	2,700.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			2,704.5
	YoY		-20.9	23.9	8.4						0.2

3	Laboratory revenue		6,229.5	6,755.5	1,983.2	0.0	0.0	0.0			2,030.9
	YoY		-13.8	23.2	3.1						0

4	Radiology services		696.0	857.6	883.7	0.0	0.0	0.0			988.6
	YoY		-99.5	-5749.3	-240.9						0

5	Deferred revenue		-0.0	0.6	-0.8	0.0	0.0	0.0			-0.3
	0		0	0	0						0

	Period		FY21	FY22	FY23	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
1	COGS		6,285.3	7,461.3	4,670.0	1,235.8	1,110.2	1,309.7			4,762.5
	- As a % of sales		46.1%	43.3%	41.3%	0%	-7.0%	-7.6%			37.9%

2	Administration		1,173.8	1,910.1	1,334.5	0.0	272.5	306.5			1,886.3	0
	- As a % of sales		16.9%	17.9%	23.2%	0%	17.4%	19.6%			26.1%

3	Selling & Distribution		1,751.1	2,115.9	1,696.6	0.0	478.4	449.6			1,905.9
	- As a % of sales		13.4%	12.7%	16.6%	0%	18.2%	17.6%			18.0%

4	Capital Expenditure		589.4	959.3	92.8	0.0	-16.0	19.8		0	70.7	00	0	00	0
	- As a % of sales		5.0%	6.3%	1.0%	0%	-0.6%	0.8%			0.7%

	Fixed Assets - Cost	FY21	FY22	FY23	4Q24E	FY24E	1Q25E	3Q25E	FY28E
1	Balance B/F	19,621.5	20,165.0	21,162.6	22,907.6	22,891.7	22,911.5	22,907.6	22,978.7
	Capital Expenditure	589.4	959.3	92.8	-16.0	19.8	222
	Balance C/F	20,165.0	21,162.6	22,907.6	22,891.7	22,911.5		22,978.7

Depreciation	FY21	FY22	FY23	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
Balance B/F	5,634.0	6,435.0	5,681.6	0.0	6,157.1	6,554.3	6,748.1		6,157.1					6,982.4
Depreciation charge	828.3	830.3	828.4	0.0	183.5	193.8			826.0
- As a % of sales	7.0%	5.4%	8.9%	0%	7.0%	7.6%			8.0%
Balance C/F	6,435.0	5,681.6	6,157.1	-16,750.6	6,554.3	6,748.1	111	111	6,982.4	111	111	111	111	111	111	111	111	111
Net Book Value at end	13,730.0	15,481.0	16,750.6	16,750.6	16,337.3	16,163.3			15,996.3

2	Working Capital

Period	FY21	FY22	FY23	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24	3Q25E
2.1 Accounts and notes receivables	2,002.3	1,766.8	552.5	552.5	135.9	769.1	670.6
- As a % of sales	16.9	11.5	5.9	19.9	5.2	30.2	6.5
Four Qtr Cum. Revenue				2,547.0	5,165.7	7,948.0
Four Qtr Cum. COGS				-1,309.7	-2,419.9	-3,655.6

	2.2 Inventories		445.1	544.9	349.1	349.1	697.7	432.7			350.6
	- As a % of COGS		7.1	7.3	7.5	28.2	62.8	33.0			7.4

	2.3 Prepayments		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
	- As a % of sales		0	0	0	0	0	0			0

	2.4 Accounts payable		1,795.2	1,859.4	2,239.1	2,239.1	1,591.8	1,757.9			2,802.6
	- As a % of COGS		28.6	24.9	47.9	181.2	143.4	134.2			58.8

2.5 Other	1,482.7	1,061.5	246.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	41.3
- As a % of COGS	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Working Capital				42673.1
Change in Working Capital						473.0

Interest Bearing Debt	FY21	FY22	FY23	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
Opening balance	7,485.7	8,323.0	6,872.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	4,578.0		2,779.7
Issuance of debt	1,784.7	4,542.7	1,857.6	0.0	3,533.6	-773.6			3,594.8
Repayment of debt	1,720.8	6,839.9	3,380.7	0.0	3,533.0	-140.9			5,160.6
Closing balance	8,323.0	6,872.6	7,038.6	2,779.7	2,719.1	4,578.0			6,639.3
Adjustments	773.3	846.7	1,689.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
Interest Expenses	752.3	723.0	1,639.5	0.0	0.0	0.0			1,199.9
Average Interest rate (%)	951.8	951.6	2357.2	0	0	0	%	%	1754.5	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%

Leases	FY21	FY22	FY23	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
Lease - Opening balance	587.2	479.7	215.0	215.0	35.6	156.8	156.8		35.6					84.4
Additions	25.4	149.7	40.3	0.0	3,533.6	0.0
Payments	226.1	237.1	206.7	0.0	3,412.3	0.0			12.0
Closing balance	479.7	215.0	35.6	215.0	156.8	156.8			84.4
Adjustments	11.6	-256.0	-40.2	0.0	0.0	0.0			20.3
Lease Interest expenses	81.7	78.6	27.2	0.0	0.0	0.0			34.4
Average Interest rate (%)	15.3	22.6	21.7	0	0	0	%	%	57.4	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%

Interest Income	FY21	FY22	FY23	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
i. Cash & CE Balance C/F			461.9	120.3	186.2	393.8		120.3	231.1
ii. Interest Income	48.3	53.5	58.6	0.0	0.0	10.2			71.3
Average Interest Income Rate	4.1	6.7	20.2	0	0	2.6	%	%	15.1	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%

Tax	FY21	FY22	FY23	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
Profit Before Tax	347.2	456.0	-1,910.8	1,546.5	120.9	-66.4			-247.0
Opening balance	18.6	14.2	195.9	195.9	86.5	86.5	86.5
Current Income Tax	10.9	195.6	24.4	0.0	0.0	0.0			15.4
Taxes paid	11.5	13.9	4.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		5.1					15.4
Closing balance	14.2	195.9	86.5	195.9	86.5	86.5			108.5
Effective Tax Rate (%)	0	0	0	0	0	0	%	%		%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%

Income Statement	FY21	FY22	FY23	1Q24	2Q24	FY24
Combined Revenue	11,827.7	15,302.3	9,305.1	2,618.7	2,547.0	10,379.2
COGS	6,285.3	7,461.3	4,670.0	1,110.2	1,309.7
Gross Profit	5,542.4	7,840.9	4,635.1	1,508.5	1,237.3	5,616.6
Administration Exp.	1,173.8	1,910.1	1,334.5	272.5	306.5
Selling & Distribution Exp.	1,751.1	2,115.9	1,696.6	478.4	449.6
Depreciation	828.3	830.3	828.4	183.5	193.8	826.0
7. Amortisation
Other Operating Expenses	-411.4	-1,460.9	-987.3	-25.8	-20.6	nan
Operating Income	1,503.5	1,660.3	-73.5	570.5	290.8	1,024.6
Interest Expenses	1,204.6	1,257.7	2,055.8			1,491.4
Interest Income	48.3	53.5	58.6	0.0	10.2
Other (Expenses)/Income	0.0	0.0	159.9	0.0	0.0	nan
Profit Before Tax	347.2	456.0	-1,910.8	120.9	-66.4	-247.0
Tax Expenses	10.9	195.6	24.4	0.0	0.0
Profit After Tax	501.3	-96.6	-2,438.5	120.3	-100.0
Other	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	nan
Net Income	501.3	-96.6	-2,438.5	120.3	-100.0

Cash Flow Statement	Forecast Ref.	FY21	FY22	FY23	1Q24	2Q24	4Q24E	FY24	FY25E
Profit Before Tax	From IS	347.2	456.0	-1,910.8	120.9	-66.4		-247.0
Depreciation	From OA 1.1	828.3	830.3	828.4	183.5	193.8		826.0
Change in Working Capital	From OA 2	-1,155.3	-497.3	1,231.3	-418.4	-202.1		473.0
Income Tax Paid	From OA 5	11.5	13.9	4.2	0.0	0.0		5.1
Other		353.5	1,426.5	2,591.4	214.0	751.7		1,042.4
Net Cash Flow from / (used in) Operating Activities		524.1	2,375.2	2,885.2	101.6	678.5		2,124.1
Capital Expenditure	From CA 4	589.4	959.3	92.8	-16.0	19.8		70.7
Other		-24.6	1,437.0	229.8	4.3	-3.9		-32.6
Cash Flows from Investing Activities		-614.1	320.6	96.8	20.3	-23.7		-109.4
Borrowings		1,784.7	4,542.7	1,857.6	3,533.6	-773.6		3,594.8
Debt Repayments		2,073.5	4,298.7	4,298.7	3,532.6	-141.3		5,416.7
10. Lease Additions
Lease Repayments		237.1	206.7	206.7	-120.6	-5.9		12.0
Other		1,026.3	1,609.8	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
Net Cash flows from / (used in) Financing Activities		500.5	-3,268.7	-2,647.9	121.6<	-626.4		-1,833.8
Other		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		-559.5
Net Increase/(Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents		410.5	-572.9	334.1	243.5	28.5		180.9
Balance adjustments as per company		1,257.8	1,486.2	810.5	1,364.5	1,621.1		1,299.9
Cash and CE at Start		-861.9	-451.4	-1,024.3	-1,421.8	-1,255.8	4Q	-690.2	-1,068.8
Cash and CE at End		-451.4	-1,024.3	-690.2	-1,178.3			-1,068.8

Balance Sheet	Notes	FY21	FY22	FY23	1Q24	2Q24	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
Assets
Property Plant and Equipment - Net Book value	From OA 1	13,730.0	15,481.0	16,750.6	16,337.3	16,163.3			15,996.3
2. Right-of-use assets		14.8	14.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
3. Intangible assets		0.0	0.0	210.4	14.8	0.0	520.4	520.4	359.9	520.4	520.4	520.4	520.4	520.4	520.4	520.4	520.4	520.4
4. Investment in an associate		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
5. Other financial assets		594.5	365.2	212.8	347.9	336.9	173.9	nan	208.2	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan
6. Deferred income tax assets		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Other		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Non Current Assets		14,339.3	15,861.0	17,173.8	16,700.0	16,500.2			16,564.4
Inventories	From OA 2.2	445.1	544.9	349.1	697.7	432.7			350.6
Trade and Other Receivables	From OA 2.1	2,002.3	1,766.8	552.5	135.9	769.1			670.6
Prepayments	From OA 2.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
Other		736.2	1,124.5	629.7	1,600.7	685.2	1,133.1	1,133.1	638.5	1,133.1	1,133.1	1,133.1	1,133.1	1,133.1	1,133.1	1,133.1	1,133.1	1,133.1
12. Other financial assets		383.9	341.0	169.7	166.0	0.0	245.2	245.2	239.8	245.2	245.2	245.2	245.2	245.2	245.2	245.2	245.2	245.2
13. Income tax recoverable		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.9	3.9	0.0	3.9	3.9	3.9	3.9	3.9	3.9	3.9	3.9	3.9
Cash and Cash Equivalents	From CFS	806.4	461.9	120.3	186.2	393.8			231.1
Current Assets		4,373.8	4,239.1	1,821.3	2,786.5	2,280.7			2,130.6
Total Assets		18,713.2	20,100.0	18,995.1	19,486.5	18,780.9
Equities and Liabilities
1. Stated capital		1,207.4	1,207.4	1,207.4	1,207.4	1,207.4	1,207.4	1,207.4	1,207.4	1,207.4	1,207.4	1,207.4	1,207.4	1,207.4	1,207.4	1,207.4	1,207.4	1,207.4
2. Reserves	-823.2	1,294.1	1,294.1	4,539.3	5,604.9	5,604.9	4,539.3	4,539.3	4,539.3	4,539.3	4,539.3	4,539.3	4,539.3	4,539.3	4,539.3	4,539.3	4,539.3	4,539.3
Retained Earnings		1,597.4	1,545.8	-823.2	541.7	441.7			-1,161.3
Other		0.0	0.0	0.0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Equity attributable to equity holders of parent
5. Non-controlling interest		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total Equity		4,098.9	6,682.4	4,923.5	7,354.0	7,254.0			4,585.4
Long Term Debt	From OA 3	5,585.9	6,326.3	2,779.7	2,719.1	4,578.0			1,989.4
Financing and Lease Payables	From OA 4	479.7	215.0	35.6	156.8	156.8			84.4
Defined Benefit Obligation (Net)		387.0	328.1	252.5	333.8	280.2	221.4	221.4	330.5	221.4	221.4	221.4	221.4	221.4	221.4	221.4	221.4	221.4
Deferred tax liabilities		601.9	1,306.1	3,333.4	1,306.1	1,306.1	3,333.3	3,333.3	3,349.3	3,333.3	3,333.3	3,333.3	3,333.3	3,333.3	3,333.3	3,333.3	3,333.3	3,333.3
Other Non-Current Liabilities		22.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Non Current Liabilities		6,902.1	8,083.5	6,384.6	4,464.3	6,358.1			5,739.7
Current Maturities of Long Term Debt	Added to LT debt in the forecast	2,737.1	2,737.1	4,258.9	4,407.3	1,774.7			4,649.9
Trade Payables	From OA 2.4	1,795.2	1,859.4	2,239.1	1,591.8	1,757.9			2,802.6
13. Amounts due to related parties		nan	nan	nan	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	nan	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Income Tax Liabilities	From OA 6	14.2	195.9	86.5	86.5	86.5			108.5
Other Accruals	From OA 2.5	0	0	0	0	0
Other		249.8	93.0	28.8	16.0	43.4	4.6	4.6	13.3	4.6	4.6	4.6	4.6	4.6	4.6	4.6	4.6	4.6
Bank Overdraft		1,257.8	1,486.2	810.5	1,364.5	1,377.6	1,554.9	nan	740.5	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan
Current Liabilities		7,712.2	5,334.2	7,687.0	7,668.1	5,183.6			8,369.9
Total Equity and Liabilities		18,713.2	20,100.0	18,995.1	19,486.5	18,795.7			18,695.0

DCF Valuation
Relative Valuation

DCF Enterprise Value

Period	Notes	FY25E
1. EBIT	From FF 6
2. Tax	From OA 4
3. Depreciation	From OA 1
4. Adjustments	User Input
5. Capital Expenditure	From CA 4
6. Changes in Working Capital	From OA 2
7. Free Cash Flow
8. Terminal Value
9. Total Free Cash Flow
10. Discount factor	Calculation
11. Present Value of Free Cash Flows	7*10=11

12. DCF Enterprise Value
13. Net (Debt)/Cash		-6,993.2
14. Pension Underfunding	From BS
15. Other	User input cell
14. Adjustment	User Input
15. DCF Valuation - Equity Value
16. Number of Shares		1,409.5
17. Price per Share (Rs.)

Weighted Average Costs of Capital (WACC)

	Symbol		User Input	Reference	Source for Reference
1. Risk Free Rate	Rf		%	18.8%	SL 10yr bond yield
2. Long term cost of debt	Kd		%	25.0%	Weighted avg. int. rate
3. Equity risk premium	Rp		%	10.0%	External Source
4. Beta	B		%	125.0%	CSE
5.Tax Rate	t		%	30.0%	SL tax rate
6. Debt Weighting	Wd		%	50.0%
7. Equity Weighting	We		%	50.0%
8. Cost of Equity	Ke	1+(3*4)=8		25.0%
9. WACC	Dr	(6(2(1-5)))+(7*8)=9		21.0%
10. Terminal Growth Rate			%	5.0%

	Notes	Price to Earnings	Price to Book Value	Price to Sales
1. Earnings/Book Value/Sales			4,585.4
2. Adjusted Multiple
3. Valuation (Rs. Millions)	1*2=3
4. Number of Shares (Millions)		1,409.5	1,409.5	1,409.5
5. Price per Share(Rs.)

Peer Multiples	Notes		Price to Earnings		Price to Book Value		Price to Sales





Average
Adjustment
Adjusted Multiple

Date	Research Organisation	Recommendation	Target Price (Rs.)
0	365.187721	0	0

Valuation

DCF Enterprise Value

Weighted Average Costs of Capital (WACC)

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Period		3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24E	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
Revenue
YoY %
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin %
Net Profit
Net Profit Margin %
Free Cash Flow

Valuation		Rs.Million	Price per Share (Rs.)	Share	Adjusted Valuation
DCF Valuation				%
Price to Earnings				%
Price to Book Value				%
Price to Sales				%
EV to EBITDA				%
Blended Valuation (Rs.)