Company Overview - Commercialbank

Commercialbank

Valuation

Period		3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24E	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
Revenue
YoY %
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin %
Net Profit
Net Profit Margin %
Free Cash Flow

Valuation		Equity Value(Rs.Million)	Price per Share (Rs.)	Adjustment	Adjusted Valuation
Residual Income Method				%
Price to Earnings				%
Price to Book Value				%
Price to Sales				%
EV to EBITDA				%
Justified P/BV Multiple Method				%
Blended Valuation

Options

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ASSETS		2024 to 2029
Placements with banks	YoY%	-15.2
Reverse repurchase agreements	YoY%	0
Financial assets recognised through profit or loss – measured at fair value	YoY%	18.4
Financial assets at amortised cost – Loans and advances to other customers	YoY%	4.3
Financial assets at amortised cost – Debt and other financial instruments	YoY%	-10.0
Financial assets - fair value through other comprehensive income	YoY%	142.5
LIABILITIES		2024 to 2029
Due to banks	YoY%	0
Securities sold under repurchase agreements	YoY%	13.8
Financial liabilities at amortised cost – due to depositors	YoY%	8.6
Financial liabilities at amortised cost – other borrowings	YoY%	-21.0
- due to debt securities holders	YoY%	nan
REVENUE		2024 to 2029
Interest Income	- % Avg Int. Earning Assets	13.3
Fee & Commission Income	- YoY%	17.0
Other Operating Income	- YoY%	-58.3
COSTS		2024 to 2029
Interest Expense	- as a % Avg Int. Earning Liabilities	9.4
Fee & Commission Expenses	% of Fee & Commission Income	27.0
Impairment Charge
Other Operating Expenses	Cost to Operating Income ratio	36.3
VAT on financial services	- as a % of Gross Income	1.5
Social Security Levy	- as a % of Gross Income	0
Effective Tax rate	%	35.5

	Rs. (Millions)	2021	2022	2023	J-M 2024	A-J 2024	4Q23	1Q24	2Q24	2024E	2025E	2026E	2027E	2028E	2029E
1	Placements with banks	12,498.7	96,082.9	81,506.7	109,891.0	126,150.7	96082.9	53920.8	66538.2
	YoY%	-395.0%	105.0%	-15.2%	100.1%	134.0%	0%	194.4%	15.7%
SCO1	Placements with banks	12,498.7	96,082.9	81,506.7	109,891.0	126,150.7
	LY YoY%	-395.0%	105.0%	-15.2%	100.1%	134.0%				-15.2%	-15.2%	-15.2%	-15.2%	-15.2%	-15.2%
SCO3	Placements with banks	12,498.7	96,082.9	81,506.7	109,891.0	126,150.7
	FL YoY%	-395.0%	105.0%	-15.2%	100.1%	134.0%				-15.2%	-15.2%	-15.2%	-15.2%	-15.2%	-15.2%

2	Reverse repurchase agreements	3,000.5	1,517.3	31,148.7	31,290.3	11,918.0	1517.3	3378.6	549.8
	YoY	0%	0%	0%	787.8%	252.8%	0%	68.7%	nan%
SCO1	Reverse repurchase agreements	3,000.5	1,517.3	31,148.7	31,290.3	11,918.0
	LY YoY%	0%	0%	0%	787.8%	252.8%				0%		0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
SCO3	Reverse repurchase agreements	3,000.5	1,517.3	31,148.7	31,290.3	11,918.0
	FL YoY%	0%	0%	0%	787.8%	252.8%				0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

3	Financial assets recognised through profit or loss – measured at fair value	23,436.1	24,873.1	29,449.7	68,322.3	77,951.7	24873.1	50792.0	98042.5
	YoY	0%	0%	18.4%	136.2%	53.5%	0%	-6.3%	129.9%
SCO1	Financial assets recognised through profit or loss – measured at fair value	23,436.1	24,873.1	29,449.7	68,322.3	77,951.7
	LY YoY%	0%	0%	18.4%	136.2%	53.5%				18.4%		18.4%	18.4%	18.4%	18.4%	18.4%
SCO3	Financial assets recognised through profit or loss – measured at fair value	23,436.1	24,873.1	29,449.7	68,322.3	77,951.7
	FL YoY%	0%	0%	18.4%	136.2%	53.5%				18.4%	18.4%	18.4%	18.4%	18.4%	18.4%

4	Financial assets at amortised cost – Loans and advances to other customers	1,029,584.1	1,155,492.5	1,204,865.6	1,224,802.3	1,265,991.7	1155492.5	1096826.8	1148276.8
	YoY	0%	0%	4.3%	11.9%	15.4%	0%	-10.1%	-0.9%
SCO1	Financial assets at amortised cost – Loans and advances to other customers	1,029,584.1	1,155,492.5	1,204,865.6	1,224,802.3	1,265,991.7
	LY YoY%	0%	0%	4.3%	11.9%	15.4%				4.3%		4.3%	4.3%	4.3%	4.3%	4.3%
SCO3	Reverse repurchase agreements	1,029,584.1	1,155,492.5	1,204,865.6	1,224,802.3	1,265,991.7
	FL YoY%	0%	0%	4.3%	11.9%	15.4%				4.3%	4.3%	4.3%	4.3%	4.3%	4.3%

5	Financial assets at amortised cost – Debt and other financial instruments	385,390.6	761,650.2	685,155.5	652,390.8	648,766.2	761650.2	740197.3	706747.8
	YoY	0%	0%	-10.0%	-14.7%	-12.4%	0%	-3.9%	-5.1%
SCO1	Financial assets at amortised cost – Debt and other financial instruments	385,390.6	761,650.2	685,155.5	652,390.8	648,766.2
	LY YoY%	0%	0%	-10.0%	-14.7%	-12.4%				-10.0%		-10.0%	-10.0%	-10.0%	-10.0%	-10.0%
SCO3	Financial assets at amortised cost – Debt and other financial instruments	385,390.6	761,650.2	685,155.5	652,390.8	648,766.2
	FL YoY%	0%	0%	-10.0%	-14.7%	-12.4%				-10.0%	-10.0%	-10.0%	-10.0%	-10.0%	-10.0%

6	Financial assets - fair value through other comprehensive income	335,953.8	118,652.3	287,733.0	250,961.0	297,079.3	118652.3	230826.3	246477.9
	YoY	0%	0%	142.5%	34.3%	28.7%	0%	223.4%	127.1%
SCO1	Financial assets - fair value through other comprehensive income	335,953.8	118,652.3	287,733.0	250,961.0	297,079.3
	LY YoY%	0%	0%	142.5%	34.3%	28.7%				142.5%		142.5%	142.5%	142.5%	142.5%	142.5%
SCO3	Financial assets - fair value through other comprehensive income	335,953.8	118,652.3	287,733.0	250,961.0	297,079.3
	FL YoY%	0%	0%	142.5%	34.3%	28.7%				142.5%	142.5%	142.5%	142.5%	142.5%	142.5%

7	Average Interest Earning Assets (AIEA)	1,712,605.3	1,974,066.1	2,239,063.7	2,235,680.1	2,301,899.6	1974066.1	2155980.5	2189481.0
SC01	Average Interest Earning Assets (AIEA)	1,712,605.3	1,974,066.1	2,239,063.7	2,235,680.1	2,301,899.6	1974066.1	2155980.5	2189481.0
SC03	Average Interest Earning Assets (AIEA)	1,712,605.3	1,974,066.1	2,239,063.7	2,235,680.1	2,301,899.6	1974066.1	2155980.5	2189481.0

	Period	2021	2022	2023	J-M 2024	A-J 2024	4Q23	1Q24	2Q24
8	Interest Earning Assets (IEA)	1,789,863.8	2,158,268.3	2,319,859.1	2,337,657.7	2,427,857.6	2158268.3	2175941.7	2266632.9
	YoY%
SC01	Interest Earning Assets (IEA)	1,789,863.8	2,158,268.3	2,319,859.1	2,337,657.7	2,427,857.6	2158268.3	2175941.7	2266632.9
	YoY%
SC01	Interest Earning Assets (IEA)	1,789,863.8	2,158,268.3	2,319,859.1	2,337,657.7	2,427,857.6	2158268.3	2175941.7	2266632.9
	YoY%

	Rs. Millions	2021	2022	2023	J-M 2024	A-J 2024	4Q23	1Q24	2Q24	2024E	2025E	2026E	2027E	2028E	2029E
1	Due to banks	73,801.2	64,971.2	47,948.6	24,554.8	29,722.8	64971.2	50020.4	48268.9
	YoY%	0%	0%	0%	-42.8%	-40.6%	0%	-22.6%	-25.8%/td>
SCO1	Due to banks	73,801.2	64,971.2	47,948.6	24,554.8	29,722.8
	YoY%	0%	0%	0%	-42.8%	-40.6%				0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
SCO1	Due to banks	73,801.2	64,971.2	47,948.6	24,554.8	29,722.8
	YoY%	0%	0%	0%	-42.8%	-40.6%				0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

2	Securities sold under repurchase agreements	151,424.9	97,726.4	111,186.8	98,228.6	121,429.0	97726.4	133588.2	117895.2
	YoY	0%	0%	13.8%	2.0%	-9.1%	0%	-37.8%	-9.1%
SC01	Securities sold under repurchase agreements	151,424.9	97,726.4	111,186.8	98,228.6	121,429.0
	YoY%	0%	0%	13.8%	2.0%	-9.1%				13.8%	13.8%	13.8%	13.8%	13.8%	13.8%
SCO1	Securities sold under repurchase agreements	151,424.9	97,726.4	111,186.8	98,228.6	121,429.0
	YoY%	0%	0%	13.8%	2.0%	-9.1%				13.8%	13.8%	13.8%	13.8%	13.8%	13.8%

3	Financial liabilities at amortised cost – due to depositors	1,472,640.5	1,977,743.7	2,147,906.9	2,140,750.7	2,192,925.5	1977743.7	1958690.8	2038498.6
	YoY	0%	0%	8.6%	5.8%	12.0%	0%	11.5%	10.0%
SC01	Financial liabilities at amortised cost – due to depositors	1,472,640.5	1,977,743.7	2,147,906.9	2,140,750.7	2,192,925.5
	YoY%	0%	0%	8.6%	5.8%	12.0%				8.6%	8.6%	8.6%	8.6%	8.6%	8.6%
SCO1	Financial liabilities at amortised cost – due to depositors	1,472,640.5	1,977,743.7	2,147,906.9	2,140,750.7	2,192,925.5
	YoY%	0%	0%	8.6%	5.8%	12.0%				8.6%	8.6%	8.6%	8.6%	8.6%	8.6%

4	Financial liabilities at amortised cost – other borrowings	32,587.1	16,150.4	12,756.0	12,584.7	11,587.5	16150.4	11481.2	13243.6
	YoY	0%	0%	-21.0%	16.1%	0.9%	0%	-62.5%	-36.7%
SC01	Financial liabilities at amortised cost – other borrowings	32,587.1	16,150.4	12,756.0	12,584.7	11,587.5
	YoY%	0%	0%	-21.0%	16.1%	0.9%				-21.0%	-21.0%	-21.0%	-21.0%	-21.0%	-21.0%
SCO3	Financial liabilities at amortised cost – other borrowings	32,587.1	16,150.4	12,756.0	12,584.7	11,587.5
	YoY%	0%	0%	-21.0%	16.1%	0.9%				-21.0%	-21.0%	-21.0%	-21.0%	-21.0%	-21.0%

5	- due to debt securities holders	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	0	0
	YoY	0%	0%	nan%	nan%	nan%	0%	nan%	nan%
SC01	- due to debt securities holders	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
	YoY%	0%	0%	nan%	nan%	nan%				nan%	nan%	nan%	nan%	nan%	nan%
SCO3	- due to debt securities holders	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
	YoY%	0%	0%	nan%	nan%	nan%				nan%	nan%	nan%	nan%	nan%	nan%

6	Average Interest bearing Liabilities (AIBL)	1,652,684.9	1,943,522.6	2,238,195.0	2,224,801.1	2,254,722.7	1943522.6	2110357.2	2143481.2
6	Average Interest bearing Liabilities (AIBL)	1,652,684.9	1,943,522.6	2,238,195.0	2,224,801.1	2,254,722.7	1943522.6	2110357.2	2143481.2
6	Average Interest bearing Liabilities (AIBL)	1,652,684.9	1,943,522.6	2,238,195.0	2,224,801.1	2,254,722.7	1943522.6	2110357.2	2143481.2

7	Interest bearing Liabilities (IBL)	1,730,453.6	2,156,591.6	2,319,798.3	2,276,118.7	2,355,664.8	2156591.6	2153780.6	2217906.4
7	Interest bearing Liabilities (IBL)	1,730,453.6	2,156,591.6	2,319,798.3	2,276,118.7	2,355,664.8	2156591.6	2153780.6	2217906.4
7	Interest bearing Liabilities (IBL)	1,730,453.6	2,156,591.6	2,319,798.3	2,276,118.7	2,355,664.8	2156591.6	2153780.6	2217906.4

	Rs. Millions	2021	2022	2023	J-M 2024	A-J 2024	4Q23	1Q24	2Q24	2024E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
1	Interest Income	132,818.2	222,393.1	297,645.9	70,390.9	68,869.5	222,393.1	74872.6	73758.4
	- % Avg Int. Earning Assets	7.8%	11.3%	13.3%	3.1%	3.0%	11.3%	3.5%	3.4%
SC01	Interest Income	132,818.2	222,393.1	297,645.9	70,390.9	68,869.5	222,393.1	74872.6	73758.4
	- % Avg Int. Earning Assets	7.8%	11.3%	13.3%	3.1%	3.0%	11.3%	3.5%	3.4%	13.3%	13.3%	13.3%	13.3%	13.3%	13.3%
SC03	Interest Income	132,818.2	222,393.1	297,645.9	70,390.9	68,869.5	222,393.1	74872.6	73758.4
	- % Avg Int. Earning Assets	7.8%	11.3%	13.3%	3.1%	3.0%	11.3%	3.5%	3.4%	13.3%	13.3%	13.3%	13.3%	13.3%	13.3%

	Period	2021	2022	2023	J-M 2024	A-J 2024	4Q23	1Q24	2Q24	2024E	2025E	2026E	2027E	2028E	2029E
2	Interest Expense	66,401.8	137,727.9	211,230.5	42,692.9	37,947.6	137,727.9	56,398.2	50,326.3
	- as a % Avg Int. Earning Liabilities	4.0%	7.1%	9.4%	1.9%	1.7%	7.1%	2.7%	2.3%
SC01	Interest Expense	66,401.8	137,727.9	211,230.5	42,692.9	37,947.6	137,727.9	56,398.2	50,326.3
	- as a % Avg Int. Earning Liabilities	4.0%	7.1%	9.4%	1.9%	1.7%				9.4%	9.4%	9.4%	9.4%	9.4%	9.4%
SC03	Interest Expense	66,401.8	137,727.9	211,230.5	42,692.9	37,947.6	137,727.9	56,398.2	50,326.3
	- as a % Avg Int. Earning Liabilities	4.0%	7.1%	9.4%	1.9%	1.7%				9.4%	9.4%	9.4%	9.4%	9.4%	9.4%

	Period	2021	2022	2023	J-M 2024	A-J 2024	4Q23	1Q24	2Q24
3	Net Interest income	66,416.3	84,665.2	86,415.4	27,698.0	30,921.8	84665.2	18474.4	23432.1
	- as a % AIEA	3.9%	4.3%	3.9%	1.2%	1.3%	4.3%	0.9%	1.1%
3	Net Interest income	66,416.3	84,665.2	86,415.4	27,698.0	30,921.8	84665.2	18474.4	23432.1
	- as a % AIEA	3.9%	4.3%	3.9%	1.2%	1.3%	4.3%	0.9%	1.1%

	Period	2021	2022	2023	J-M 2024	A-J 2024	4Q23	1Q24	2Q24	2024E	2025E	2026E	2027E	2028E	2029E
4	Fee & Commission Income	15,917.3	26,191.5	30,653.2	8,200.8	8,089.8	26191.5	7076.8	7657.0
	- YoY%	34.4%	64.5%	17.0%	12.3%	14.3%	64.5%	11.2%	18.8%
4	Fee & Commission Income	15,917.3	26,191.5	30,653.2	8,200.8	8,089.8	26191.5	7076.8	7657.0
	- YoY%	34.4%	64.5%	17.0%	12.3%	14.3%	64.5%	11.2%	18.8%	17.0%	17.0%	17.0%	17.0%	17.0%	17.0%
4	Fee & Commission Income	15,917.3	26,191.5	30,653.2	8,200.8	8,089.8	26191.5	7076.8	7657.0
	- YoY%	34.4%	64.5%	17.0%	12.3%	14.3%	64.5%	11.2%	18.8%	17.0%	17.0%	17.0%	17.0%	17.0%	17.0%

	Period	2021	2022	2023	J-M 2024	A-J 2024	4Q23	1Q24	2Q24	2024E	2025E	2026E	2027E	2028E	2029E
5	Other Operating Income	14,939.8	31,802.3	13,267.1	1,616.1	5,951.7	31,802.3	1569.6	6879.2
	- YoY%	-6.9%	112.9%	-58.3%	77.7%	279.2%	112.9%	-81.1%	-7.9%
SC01	Other Operating Income	14,939.8	31,802.3	13,267.1	1,616.1	5,951.7	31,802.3	1569.6	6879.2
	- YoY%	-6.9%	112.9%	-58.3%	77.7%	279.2%				-58.3%	-58.3%	-58.3%	-58.3%	-58.3%	-58.3%
SC03	Other Operating Income	14,939.8	31,802.3	13,267.1	1,616.1	5,951.7	31,802.3	1569.6	6879.2
	- YoY%	-6.9%	112.9%	-58.3%	77.7%	279.2%				-58.3%	-58.3%	-58.3%	-58.3%	-58.3%	-58.3%

	Period	2021	2022	2023	J-M 2024	M-J 2024	4Q23	1Q24	2Q24
6	Gross Income (GI)	163,675.3	280,386.9	341,566.2	80,207.9	82,910.9
	- YoY%	7.7	-49.5	0.9	21.8	-4.7
SC01	Gross Income (GI)	163,675.3	280,386.9	341,566.2	80,207.9	82,910.9	280386.9	83519.0	88294.6
	- YoY%	7.7	-49.5	0.9	21.8	-4.7
SC03	Gross Income (GI)	163,675.3	280,386.9	341,566.2	80,207.9	82,910.9	280386.9	83519.0	88294.6
	- YoY%	7.7	-49.5	0.9	21.8	-4.7

	Period	2021	2022	2023	J-M 2024	A-J 2024	4Q23	1Q24	2Q24	2024E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
1	Fee & Commission Expenses	3,675.1	6,022.4	8,265.9	2,567.6	2,653.5	6022.4	1888.0	2038.1
	% of Fee & Commission Income	23.1%	23.0%	27.0%	31.3%	32.8%	23.0%	26.7%	26.6%
SC01	Fee & Commission Expenses	3,675.1	6,022.4	8,265.9	2,567.6	2,653.5	6022.4	1888.0	2038.1
	% of Fee & Commission Income	23.1%	23.0%	27.0%	31.3%	32.8%	23.0%	26.7%	26.6%	27.0%	27.0%	27.0%	27.0%	27.0%	27.0%
SC03	Fee & Commission Expenses	3,675.1	6,022.4	8,265.9	2,567.6	2,653.5	6022.4	1888.0	2038.1
	% of Fee & Commission Income	23.1%	23.0%	27.0%	31.3%	32.8%	23.0%	26.7%	26.6%	27.0%	27.0%	27.0%	27.0%	27.0%	27.0%

	Period	2021	2022	2023	J-M 2024	A-J 2024	4Q23	1Q24	2Q24
2	Impairment Charge	25,139.9	71,924.3	38,895.1	nan	nan	71924.3	6413.8	12571.1
	nan
SC01	Impairement Charges
SC03	Impairement Charges

	Period	2021	2022	2023	J-M 2024	A-J 2024	4Q23	1Q24	2Q24	2024E	2025E	2026E	2027E	2028E	2029E
3	Other Operating Expenses	29,657.7	36,282.2	44,289.8	12,054.3	12,408.4	36282.2	10607.1	10691.5
	Total operating income (GI - Int. Exp.)	93,598.3	136,636.6	122,069.8	34,947.4	42,309.8	136,636.6	25,232.9	35,930.2
	Cost to Operating Income ratio	31.7%	26.6%	36.3%	34.5%	29.3%	26.6%	42.0%	29.8%
SC01	Other Operating Expenses	29,657.7	36,282.2	44,289.8	12,054.3	12,408.4	36282.2	10607.1	10691.5
	Total operating income (GI - Int. Exp.)	93,598.3	136,636.6	122,069.8	34,947.4	42,309.8	136,636.6	25,232.9	35,930.2
	Cost to Operating Income ratio	31.7%	26.6%	36.3%	34.5%	29.3%	26.6%	42.0%	29.8%	36.3%	36.3%	36.3%	36.3%	36.3%	36.3%
SC03	Other Operating Expenses	29,657.7	36,282.2	44,289.8	12,054.3	12,408.4
	Total operating income (GI - Int. Exp.)	93,598.3	136,636.6	122,069.8	34,947.4	42,309.8
	Cost to Operating Income ratio	31.7%	26.6%	36.3%	34.5%	29.3%

	Period	2021	2022	2023	J-M 2024	A-J 2024	4Q23	1Q24	2Q24	4Q24E	2024E	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	2025E	2026E	2027E	2028E	2029E
4	VAT on financial services	5,845.2	3,921.4	4,961.4	2,718.7	1,941.3	3921.4	862.1	1730.7	0		00	0	00	0
	- as a % of Gross Income	3.6%	1.4%	1.5%	3.4%	2.3%	1.4%	1.0%	2.0%
SC01	VAT on financial services	5,845.2	3,921.4	4,961.4	2,718.7	1,941.3	3921.4	862.1	1730.7	0		00	0	00	0
	Profit Before VAT and SSL	38,800.7	28,430.1	38,884.9	19,457.1	14,320.8
	- as a % of Gross Income	3.6%	1.4%	1.5%	3.4%	2.3%	1.4%	1.0%	2.0%		1.5%					1.5%	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
SC01	VAT on financial services	5,845.2	3,921.4	4,961.4	2,718.7	1,941.3	3921.4	862.1	1730.7	0		00	0	00	0
	Profit Before VAT and SSL	38,800.7	28,430.1	38,884.9	19,457.1	14,320.8
	- as a % of Gross Income	3.6%	1.4%	1.5%	3.4%	2.3%	1.4%	1.0%	2.0%		1.5%					1.5%	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%

	Period	2021	2022	2023	J-M 2024	A-J 2024	4Q23	1Q24	2Q24	4Q24E	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E
5	Social Security Levy	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0	00	0	00	0
	- as a % of Gross Income	0	0	0	0	0
SCO1	Social Security Levy	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0	00	0	00	0
	%
SCO3	Social Security Levy	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0	00	0	00	0
	%

	Fixed Assets - Cost	4Q23	1Q24	2Q24	3Q24E
1	Total Equity	nan	nan	nan	nan
	VAT on financial services	3921.4	862.1	1730.7	222
	Equity funding of assets %	nan	nan	nan

	Depreciation	4Q23	1Q24	2Q24	3Q24E	4Q24E	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
1	Check	nan	nan	nan	nan
	nan	nan	nan	nan
	nan	nan%	nan%	nan%
	nan	nan	nan	nan	111	111	111	111	111	111	111	111	111	111
	nan	nan	nan	nan

2	Working Capital

Period	4Q23	1Q24	2Q24
nan	nan	nan	nan
nan	nan	nan	nan
Profit before taxes on financial services	nan	nan	nan
nan	nan	nan	nan

	Period		4Q23	1Q24	2Q24	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24E	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
	nan		nan	nan	nan
	nan

	Period		4Q23	1Q24	2Q24	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24E	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
	nan		nan	nan	nan
	nan		nan	nan	nan

	Period		4Q23	1Q24	2Q24	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24E	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
	nan		nan	nan	nan
	nan		nan	nan	nan

Period	4Q23	1Q24	2Q24
nan	nan	nan	nan
nan	nan	nan	nan
Working Capital	42673.1
Change in Working Capital		nan	nan

Interest Bearing Debt		4Q23	1Q24	2Q24	3Q24E	4Q24E	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
nan		nan	nan	nan	nan
nan		nan	nan	nan
nan		nan	nan	nan
nan	i+ii-iii=iv	nan	nan	nan
nan		nan	nan	nan
nan	iv*vii=vi	nan	nan	nan
nan		nan	nan	nan	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%

Interest Income	4Q23	1Q24	2Q24	3Q24E	4Q24E	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E
nan	nan	nan	nan
nan	nan	nan	1
nan	nan	nan	nan	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%

1	Tax	2021	2022	2023	J-M 2024	A-J 2024	4Q23	1Q24	2Q24	3Q24E	4Q24E	2024E	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	2025E	2026E	2027E	2028E	2029E
	Profit before income tax	32,955.4	24,505.0	33,923.5	16,737.8	12,379.5	nan	nan	nan
	Tax B/F	7,588.8	9,486.8	24,916.1	15,256.2	18,031.8	nan	nan	nan	nan		15,256.2
	Tax provision for the year	8,667.0	105.6	12,027.3	5,929.5	4,288.8	nan	nan	nan
	Tax paid	-8,963.6	-11,143.3	-25,270.4	-3,655.1	-5,197.7	nan	nan	nan	nan		12,027.3
	Tax C/F	9,486.8	24,916.1	15,256.2	18,031.8	18,101.6	nan	nan	nan
	Effective Tax rate	26.3	0.4	35.5	35.4	34.6	nan	nan	nan	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
	* Historically showing selected rows only
SC01	Profit Before Tax
	Tax B/F	7,588.8	9,486.8	24,916.1	15,256.2	18,031.8						15,256.2
	Tax provision for the year	8,667.0	105.6	12,027.3	5,929.5	4,288.8
	Tax paid	-8,963.6	-11,143.3	-25,270.4	-3,655.1	-5,197.7						12,027.3
	Tax C/F	9,486.8	24,916.1	15,256.2	18,031.8	18,101.6
	Effective Tax rate	26.3	0.4	35.5	35.4	34.6						35.5					35.5	35.5	35.5	35.5	35.5
SC03	Profit Before Tax
	Tax B/F	7,588.8	9,486.8	24,916.1	15,256.2	18,031.8						15,256.2
	Tax provision for the year	8,667.0	105.6	12,027.3	5,929.5	4,288.8
	Tax paid	-8,963.6	-11,143.3	-25,270.4	-3,655.1	-5,197.7						12,027.3
	Tax C/F	9,486.8	24,916.1	15,256.2	18,031.8	18,101.6
	Effective Tax rate	26.3	0.4	35.5	35.4	34.6						35.5					35.5	35.5	35.5	35.5	35.5
	Checkbox selection tax prov

	Item		2024E	2025E	2026E	2027E	2028E	2029E	Your Comments
ASSETS
1	Placements with banks	YoY%

Income Statement
Balance Sheet

Income Statement (Rs. Millions)		2021	2022	2023	J- M 2024	A- J 2024	4Q23	1Q24	2Q24	3Q24E	4Q24E	2024	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	2025E	2026E	2027E	2028E	2029E
1. Interest Income		132,818.2	222,393.1	297,645.9	70,390.9	68,869.5	74,872.6	73,758.4
2. Interest Expenses		66,401.8	137,727.9	211,230.5	42,692.9	37,947.6
3. Net Interest Expenses		66,416.3	84,665.2	86,415.4	27,698.0	30,921.8	18474.4	23432.1
4. Fee and Commission Income		15,917.3	26,191.5	30,653.2	8,200.8	8,089.8
5. Fee and Commission Expenses		3,675.1	6,022.4	8,265.9	2,567.6	2,653.5
6. Other Operating Income		14,939.8	31,802.3	13,267.1	1,616.1	5,951.7
7. Total Operating Income		93,598.3	136,636.6	122,069.8	34,947.4	42,309.8
8. Impairment Charges		25,139.9	71,924.3	38,895.1	3,435.9	15,580.6	6413.8	12571.1
9. Net Operating Income		68,458.4	64,712.4	83,174.7	31,511.4	26,729.2	18819.1	23359.1
10. Operating Expenses		29,657.7	36,282.2	44,289.8	12,054.3	12,408.4
11. Operating Profit Before Taxes on Financial Services		38,800.7	28,430.1	38,884.9	19,457.1	14,320.8	8212.0	12667.6
12. VAT on Financial Services		5,845.2	3,921.4	4,961.4	2,718.7	1,941.3	862.1	1730.7
13. Social Security Contribution Levy		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	0
6. Depreciation					nan	nan
Other Operating Expenses					1,569.6	6,879.2			nan
8. Operating Income					25,232.9	35,930.2
9. Interest Expenses					nan	nan
10. Interest Income					nan	1
14. Other (Exp.)/Inc.		0.0	-3.7	0.0	-0.6	0.0	1.1	0	-	-
15. Profit Before Tax		32,955.4	24,505.0	33,923.5	16,737.8	12,379.5	nan	nan
16. Tax Expenses		8,667.0	105.6	12,027.3	5,929.5	4,288.8	nan	nan
13. Profit After Tax	11-12=13	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
14. Other	User Input
17. Net Income		24,288.4	24,399.5	21,896.2	10,808.3	8,090.7	3931.4	6471.6

Cash Flow Statement	1Q24	2Q24	3Q24E	4Q24E	FY24E
1. Profit Before Tax	nan	nan
2. Depreciation	nan	nan
3. Change in Working Capital	nan	nan
4. Income Tax Paid	nan	nan
Other	nan	nan			nan
5. Net Cash Flow from / (used in) Operating Activities	nan	nan
6. Capital Expenditure	862.1	1730.7
Other	nan	nan			nan
7. Cash Flows from Investing Activities	nan	nan
8. Borrowings	nan	nan
9. Debt Repayments	nan	nan
Other	nan	nan			nan
10. Net Cash flows from / (used in) Financing Activities	nan	nan
Other	nan	nan			nan
11. Net Increase/(Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents	112544.3	114518.1
12. Cash and CE at Start	nan	nan	3Q	4Q	nan

Balance Sheet (Rs. Millions)	Notes	2021	2022	2023	Mar 2024	Jun 2024	3Q24E	4Q24E	2024E	1Q25E	2Q25E	3Q25E	4Q25E	2025E	2026E	2027E	2028E	2029E
Total Assets
Cash and Cash Equivalents	114518.1	69,335.4	151,109.5	159,701.5	119,329.4	103,437.1
Balances with Central Bank of Sri Lanka		56,777.5	78,597.1	62,633.5	44,654.5	48,211.8	48211.8	48211.8	48,211.8	48,211.8	48,211.8	48,211.8	48,211.8	48,211.8	48,211.8	48,211.8	48,211.8	48,211.8
Placements with banks		12,498.7	96,082.9	81,506.7	109,891.0	126,150.7
Reverse repurchase agreements		3,000.5	1,517.3	31,148.7	31,290.3	11,918.0
Derivative financial instruments		3,245.1	8,345.1	7,226.5	8,000.4	5,291.7	5,291.7	5,291.7	5,291.7	5,291.7	5,291.7	5,291.7	5,291.7	5,291.7	5,291.7	5,291.7	5,291.7	5,291.7
Financial assets recognised through profit or loss – measured at fair value		23,436.1	24,873.1	29,449.7	68,322.3	77,951.7
Financial assets at amortised cost – Loans and advances to other customers		1,029,584.1	1,155,492.5	1,204,865.6	1,224,802.3	1,265,991.7
Financial assets at amortised cost – Debt and other financial instruments		385,390.6	761,650.2	685,155.5	652,390.8	648,766.2
Financial assets - fair value through other comprehensive income		335,953.8	118,652.3	287,733.0	250,961.0	297,079.3
1. Property Plant and Equipment - Net Book value
Investment in subsidiaries		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Investments in associates		60.4	55.3	59.0	0.0	0.0	58.4	58.4	58.4	58.4	58.4	58.4	58.4	58.4	58.4	58.4	58.4	58.4
Property, plant & equipment		24,744.6	27,446.6	28,997.2	28,785.0	29,938.9	29,938.9	29,938.9	29,938.9	29,938.9	29,938.9	29,938.9	29,938.9	29,938.9	29,938.9	29,938.9	29,938.9	29,938.9
Investment properties		72.4	80.3	597.8	597.8	628.1	628.1	628.1	628.1	628.1	628.1	628.1	628.1	628.1	628.1	628.1	628.1	628.1
Intangible assets		2,272.6	4,113.2	4,289.4	4,410.4	4,309.4	4,309.4	4,309.4	4,309.4	4,309.4	4,309.4	4,309.4	4,309.4	4,309.4	4,309.4	4,309.4	4,309.4	4,309.4
Right-of-use assets		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Current tax receivables		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Leasehold property		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Deferred tax assets		10,036.1	30,727.2	34,511.4	34,013.0	37,108.3	37,108.3	37,108.3	37,108.3	37,108.3	37,108.3	37,108.3	37,108.3	37,108.3	37,108.3	37,108.3	37,108.3	37,108.3
Other assets		27,083.2	40,811.2	37,736.2	38,913.3	33,621.6	33,621.6	33,621.6	33,621.6	33,621.6	33,621.6	33,621.6	33,621.6	33,621.6	33,621.6	33,621.6	33,621.6	33,621.6
7. Non Current Assets
8. Inventories	From OA 2ii
9. Trade and Other Receivables	From OA 2i
10. Prepayments	From OA 2iii
14. Cash and Cash Equivalents	From CFS 13
15. Current Assets
Total Assets		1,983,491.1	2,499,553.9	2,655,611.7	2,616,419.7	2,690,462.9
Equities and Liabilities
Due to banks		73,801.2	64,971.2	47,948.6	24,554.8	29,722.8
Derivative financial instruments		2,092.2	2,880.7	2,319.2	3,934.9	1,196.1	1,196.1	1,196.1	1,196.1	1,196.1	1,196.1	1,196.1	1,196.1	1,196.1	1,196.1	1,196.1	1,196.1	1,196.1
Securities sold under repurchase agreements		151,424.9	97,726.4	111,186.8	98,228.6	121,429.0
Financial liabilities at amortised cost – due to depositors		1,472,640.5	1,977,743.7	2,147,906.9	2,140,750.7	2,192,925.5
Financial liabilities at amortised cost – other borrowings		32,587.1	16,150.4	12,756.0	12,584.7	11,587.5
- due to debt securities holders		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Retirement benefit obligation		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan
Dividend payable		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan
Current tax liabilities		9,486.8	24,916.1	15,256.2	18,031.8	18,101.6	18,101.6	18,101.6		18,101.6	18,101.6	18,101.6	18,101.6
Deferred tax liabilities		349.1	437.1	514.2	513.2	513.7	513.7	513.7	513.7	513.7	513.7	513.7	513.7	513.7	513.7	513.7	513.7	513.7
Other liabilities		33,253.5	40,354.9	56,266.3	55,275.6	48,377.5
Subordinated liabilities		38,303.5	61,401.0	36,482.9	37,349.6	37,178.9	37,178.9	37,178.9	37,178.9	37,178.9	37,178.9	37,178.9	37,178.9	37,178.9	37,178.9	37,178.9	37,178.9	37,178.9
Total Liabilities		1,813,938.6	2,286,581.3	2,430,637.2	2,391,223.9	2,461,032.6
Equity
Stated capital		54,567.0	58,149.6	62,948.0	65,184.1	65,374.7	65,374.7	65,374.7	65,374.7	65,374.7	65,374.7	65,374.7	65,374.7	65,374.7	65,374.7	65,374.7	65,374.7	65,374.7
Reserves		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Statutory reserve fund		10,590.3	12,079.7	13,586.5	13,586.5	13,586.5	13,586.5	13,586.5	13,586.5	13,586.5	13,586.5	13,586.5	13,586.5	13,586.5	13,586.5	13,586.5	13,586.5	13,586.5
Other reserves		92,426.7	131,845.6	133,993.2	130,019.2	125,898.0	125,898.0	125,898.0	125,898.0	125,898.0	125,898.0	125,898.0	125,898.0	125,898.0	125,898.0	125,898.0	125,898.0	125,898.0
Retained earnings	=15,470.5	9,890.8	6,790.3	9,943.0	12,043.0	19,972.0
Equity attributable to equity holders of parent		167,474.7	208,865.2	220,470.7	220,832.8	224,831.3
Non-controlling interest		2,077.8	4,107.4	4,503.8	4,363.0	4,599.0	4,599.0	4,599.0	4,599.0	4,599.0	4,599.0	4,599.0	4,599.0	4,599.0	4,599.0	4,599.0	4,599.0	4,599.0
Total Equity		169,552.5	212,972.6	224,974.5	225,195.8	229,430.3
7. Long Term Debt	From OA 3iv
10. Non Current Liabilities
11. Current Maturities of Long Term Debt
12.Trade Payables	From OA 2iv
Total Liabilities (TL)		65,374.7	65,374.7	65,374.7	65,374.7	65,374.7	65,374.7	65,374.7	65,374.7	65,374.7	65,374.7	65,374.7	65,374.7
14.Income Tax Liabilities	From OA 5v
15. Other	From OA 2v
Current Liabilities
Total Equity and Liabilities		1,983,491.1	2,499,553.9	2,655,611.7	2,616,419.7	2,690,462.9
Net Asset Value per Share		140.2	168.5	167.8	167.8	167.7			167.8					167.8	167.8	167.8	167.8	167.8
Number of Shares (Millions)		0.0	0.0	1,314.1	1,314.1	1,341.0			1,341.0					1,341.0	1,341.0	1,341.0	1,341.0	1,341.0

Valuation

Residual Income Method

Rs. Millions	Notes	Jan to June 2024	Jul to Dec 2024E	2027E	2028E	2029E
1. Profit for the year		18,899.1
2. Cost of Equity
3. Average Shareholder Funds
4. Cost of Equity Charge
5. Return in Excess of Cost of Equity
6. Terminal Value
10. Time for discount rate				0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5
7. Discount factor
8. Present Value of Excess Returns
9. Sum of Present Value of Excess Returns
10. Book Value			224,831.3
11. Equity Value
12. Number of Shares			1,341.0
13.Price per share (Rs.)
5. Capital Expenditure	From CA 4
6. Changes in Working Capital	From OA 2
7. Free Cash Flow	1+2+3+4+5+6=7
9. Total Free Cash Flow	7+8=9

13. Net (Debt)/Cash	Calculation
14. Pension Underfunding	From BS
15. Other	User input cell
16. Other	User input cell

Justified Mid Cycle P/BV Multiple Method

	Symbol		User Input	Reference	Source for Reference
1. Risk Free Rate	Rf		%	11.5%	SL 10yr bond yield
2. Market Return	Rm		%	11.0%	ASPI 5 year average return
3. Beta	B		%	125.0%	CSE
8. Cost of Equity	Ke	1+(3*4)=8		25.0%
4. Mid Cycle Cost of Equity	Ke	1+(3*(2-1))=4
5. Sustainable Earnings Growth Rate			%	5.0%
6. Sustainable ROE	ROE		%	11.0%	3 year Average
7. Book Value per Share in Year 5	BVPS				FY29E
8. Justified Mid Cycle P/BV multiple		(6-5)/4-5)
9. Estimated Target Price		8*7=9
10. Discounted Target Price		9/(1+4)^5)

	Symbol		User Input	Reference	Source for Reference
2. Long term cost of debt	Kd		%	25.0%	Weighted avg. int. rate
3. Equity risk premium	Rp		%	10.0%	External Source
5.Tax Rate	t		%	30.0%	SL tax rate
6. Debt Weighting	Wd		%	50.0%
7. Equity Weighting	We		%	50.0%
8. Cost of Equity	Ke	1+(3*4)=8		25.0%
9. WACC	Dr	(6(2(1-5)))+(7*8)=9		21.0%

	Notes	Price to Earnings	Price to Book Value	Price to Sales	EV to EBITDA
1. Earnings/Book Value/Sales/EBITDA
2. Adjusted Multiple
3. Valuation (Rs.)	1*2=3

Peer Multiples	Notes	Price to Earnings	Price to Book Value	Price to Sales	EV to EBITDA
1. Deutsche Post		15	2.5	1.8	10
2. Kuehne + Nagel International		12	1.8	1.5	8
3. Expeditors International		18	3.0	2.0	12
4.FedEx Corporation		14	2.2	1.6	9
5.CH Robinson Worldwide		16	2.8	1.9	11
6.Average	1+2+3+4+5=6
7. Adjustment
8. Adjusted Multiple	7+8=9

Date	Research Organisation	Recommendation	Target Price (Rs.)
2023-12-13 00:00:00	First Capital	MAINTAIN BUY	Fair Value: 2024E - LKR 170.0

Valuation

Residual Income Method

Justified Mid Cycle P/BV Multiple Method

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